Inspired by Spitznagel's tail-hedging framework — fragility is measurable before it's fatal. CrashSignal scores the systemic conditions that precede collapses, live, from real data: valuations, credit spreads, vol structure, the yield curve, and market concentration. Not a crystal ball. A pressure gauge.
Get Full Access → Exact scoring mathEvery number below is fetched from its primary public source and mapped to a 0–100 fragility score with fully disclosed math. When a source is unreachable, the dial says so — we never substitute a stale or invented reading.
Sources: Shiller CAPE via multpl.com · high-yield OAS & 10y−2y via FRED (St. Louis Fed) · VIX & VIX3M via Yahoo Finance (delayed) · concentration via S&P 500 constituent weights. Composite = availability-weighted mean. Cached up to 6 hours.
Mark Spitznagel didn't profit from the 2015 flash crash by predicting its date. He stayed permanently positioned for fragility — buying cheap insurance whenever markets underpriced tail risk.
The insight: you can't time crashes, but you can measure the conditions that make them more likely. Overvalued markets with compressed credit spreads, complacent volatility pricing, and concentrated positioning are fragile. They don't need a specific catalyst — any shock will do.
CrashSignal is not a trading signal — it's a risk-posture signal. When fragility is high, tail insurance is cheap relative to what it protects; when it's low, stay deployed. That's the entire use case, and it's why this ships inside the WealthSignal bundle that also executes trades: the fragility reading is the context every other signal runs in.
What we refuse to claim: a high reading does not mean a crash is imminent, and readings have stayed elevated for years while markets rose. The gauge measures conditions, not timing. Anyone who tells you otherwise is selling astrology.
CrashSignal is included with WealthSignal Full Access alongside the signal products. Daily fragility alerts on threshold crossings are members-only; this live gauge is public because honest measurement shouldn't hide behind a paywall.
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